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What is the Best Way to Test Theories?In Section 1-1, you learned that scientific psychologists assume the truth of the brain-mind theory, which states that human cognitions, emotions, and behaviors are caused most directly by activity in the nervous system. In Section 1-2, you learned that scientific theories must be supported by evidence. This evidence is obtained by:
Good theories are ones that lead to many confirmed predictions and few disconfirmed predictions. The brain-mind theory generally has been confirmed by a plethora[∂] of observations over the last two centuries. In fact, the brain-mind theory is so well supported that we now consider it to be a fact: a true theory. In other words, patterns of electrical activity in the central nervous system (CNS) — which consists of the brain and spinal cord — and in the peripheral nervous system (PNS) — which consists of the nerve pathways leading to and from the CNS — are the most direct causes of our cognitions, emotions, and behaviors. There are several research methods commonly used to test predictions derived from scientific theories: case studies, correlational studies, and experimental studies. In everyday life, on the other hand, we often evaluate and justify our beliefs by pointing to personal experiences (either our own or those of others). In this section, we will start with a discussion of personal experience and then begin to learn about the research methods used in psychology, especially the strengths and weaknesses of each. Personal Experience: Perception For most of us, our personal experiences seem to be the most compelling type of evidence on which to base our beliefs. If we have experienced something, it seems obvious to us that it must be true. But, as the example of the moon illusion demonstrates, compelling personal experiences may cause us to believe something that is not true. This is because our perceptions of the world are the end-product of a sequence of mental processes in which some information is filtered out and other information is added in. The sensory receptors on the periphery of our bodies (for example, the visual receptors in the retina of our eyes, or the touch receptors in our skin) are activated by a small range of stimuli[∂] (for example, the visual receptors are activated by light waves within a very small range of frequencies), which means that most stimuli in the world are not sensed. The sensory receptors then activate nerve pathways that eventually enter the CNS. The spinal cord and brain process this information, which involves the addition of new information to "fill in the gaps." The addition of new information is essential for completing and, therefore, creating meaningful perceptions. For example, we do not perceive a "hole" in our visual field where the optic nerve exists our eye — a point at which, because there are no visual receptors, there exists a "blind spot" in our visual field (see Figure 1). The brain processes constructing visual perceptions "fill in" this hole by adding information.
In this way, the perceptions we construct often closely reflect reality; but they also include inaccuracies that, at times, cause us to misperceive reality, as in the case of optical illusions. Because a personal experience consists of a group of perceptions combined with memories, emotions, thoughts, and so on, it is highly subjective[∂]. For example, if I take a pill that I believe is going to cure my headache, and I perceive that the pain stops, I probably will conclude that the pill cured my headache. My perceptions (pain followed by the sensations associated with taking the pill) combined with my beliefs about the pill and the resulting expectations I have regarding its effectiveness will, when followed by pain reduction, cause me to conclude from my personal experience that the pill cures headaches. The fact that a personal experience is the end-product of a long sequence of mental processes that includes subjective interpretations of perceptual information is well illustrated in the following example. On the night of March 13th, 1997, the following events occurred in central and southern Arizona (Ortega, 1997; Ortega, 1998):
Videotapes verified that there actually were strange-looking lights in the sky that night. For many eyewitnesses, their personal experiences of the lights seemed to be compelling evidence for the claim that intelligent creatures from another planet visited Arizona. When others questioned this claim, many of the eyewitnesses became indignant and said something to the effect of, "I saw it with my own eyes!" Other eyewitnesses, however, observed the same lights and saw not extraterrestrial spacecraft, but military aircraft. Their personal experiences seemed to be compelling evidence for the claim that high-altitude jets flew over Arizona that night. When others questioned this claim, many of these eyewitnesses also became indignant and said something to the effect of, "I saw it with my own eyes!" Different people, all of whom observed the same lights, had different personal experiences because they constructed different perceptions and interpreted them differently. Personal Experience: Coincidence
The term coincidence refers to two (or more) events occurring together by chance. For example, it probably is merely a coincidence that you and the person who sits two rows behind you in your psychology class both signed up for the same class. Another way of thinking about coincidence is to think of a random sequence of two events, where one event is followed by a second event: the occurrence of the second event could not have been predicted from the occurrence of the first event. For example, a fair coin is one in which a particular coin toss cannot be predicted from the preceding toss: if the coin comes up heads on the first toss, there is a 50% chance of the coin coming up heads (or tails) on the next toss and the toss after that, and so on. If a fair coin, when tossed two times in a row, comes up heads both times, this is merely a coincidence: by chance alone, we would expect this to happen 25% of the time (0.5 x 0.5). If a fair coin, when tossed three times in a row, comes up heads each time, this also is merely a coincidence: by chance alone, we would expect this to happen 12.5% of the time (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). When people mistakenly conclude that two independent events[∂] occurred together for some reason other than chance, it is very likely that two cognitive biases[∂] are at work:
With respect to the first bias, two events that seem to be meaningfully related to one another but that we don't expect to occur together — such as dreaming that a person has died and then discovering the next day that the person actually did die the night before — grabs our attention and also is associated with strong emotion, both of which makes it very likely that we will never forget the episode. On the other hand, when one event occurs and the second one doesn't (or when neither event occurs), we are very unlikely to notice this fact. For instance, if you dream that someone has died but he or she doesn't actually die, you may be upset by the dream, but you probably won't wonder why the dream wasn't followed by the actual death of the person. In a similar manner, if you don't dream that someone has died but he or she does die, you will be upset by the death, but you probably won't wonder why you didn't foresee the death in a dream (see Table 1). Thus, we are biased to remember striking conjunctions of independent events and to forget the much larger number of times when they did not occur together.
Table 1. xxxxxxxx As for the second cognitive bias, we tend to think that striking conjunctions of events are highly improbable. What we don't realize is that, given enough time, even highly improbable coincidences eventually must occur. As Stephen Jay Gould stated, "give me a million years [of flipping a coin] and I'll flip a hundred heads in a row more than once" (quoted in Gilovich, 1991, p. 176):
Even though the odds against it are astronomical, someone eventually will win the state lottery. She is not a "lucky" person in the sense that she has a greater quantity of something called "luck." And there is nothing special about the convenience store at which she bought her ticket: it does not contain some magical quality that makes tickets bought there more likely to win. We simply don't stop to think that someone somewhere, who buys a ticket at some point in time eventually must win the lottery. In short, the unexpected is expected to occur:
In a 10-year period of your life, there will be over 18 million coincidental pairings of events. Given so many coincidences, we should expect that at least a few of these will involve striking conjunctions of events. And because they are so striking, we tend to remember them while forgetting the millions of unremarkable coincidences that occur every day of our lives.
Case Studies Clinical researchers collecting information for case studies are searching for a factor or factors (causal variables) responsible for the development of abnormalities. Their ultimate goal is to distinguish the effects of one or more of these factors from the possible effects of extraneous variables, which is any factor, other than the one being investigated, that possibly may cause changes in the phenomenon of interest. For example, although neurologists immediately would have suspected brain damage after observing Greg's physical and mental changes, the members of Greg’s religious sect believed that these changes were caused by his spiritual "enlightenment," which the neurologists would have considered to be an extraneous variable:
Before concluding that Greg's brain damage caused the development of his physical and mental abnormalities, some might think it important to rule out the effects of his religious practices. Those performing case-study research may be able to rule out some extraneous variables by comparing and contrasting case studies of people who exhibit similar problems. For example, let's say that researchers compared and contrasted the case reports of people with extensive damage to the same areas of the brain, and who also exhibited similar physical and mental abnormalities. If the researchers found that only Greg’s case involved unusual religious practices, they then could rule out any influence of Greg's "enlightenment" on the development of his abnormalities. Furthermore, if it could be shown that all these cases shared only one obvious characteristic — extensive damage to particular parts of the brain — the theory that this damage caused the development of the physical and mental abnormalities would be supported. Nevertheless, it is possible that there exist other unconsidered extraneous variables, unconsidered either because they were not salient[∂] or because of experimenter (clinician) bias[∂]. This points to one major weakness of case studies: we cannot, with sufficient certainty, rule out the effects of all extraneous variables (especially those of which we are not aware). When an extraneous variable affects research results in a systematic[∂] way, we say that there exists a confound, a concept which refers to the the intertwining effects of the factor under investigation and an extraneous variable. For example, let's say that we have bred two strains of mice to differ with respect to a gene thought to influence the development of addictive behavior: one strain has an abnormal gene variant thought to increase addictive behavior and the other strain has the normal gene variant. In order to test whether or not the abnormal gene variant actually increases addictive behavior, let's say that we inject individuals from each strain daily with a highly addictive drug and then, after several weeks of this regimen[∂], give all subjects free access to a lever that delivers a dose of the drug. In this case, the measure of addictive behavior is the average frequency with which individuals from each strain press the lever. If all extraneous variables are controlled, this should provide a direct measure of the influence of the gene variants on addictive behavior. But let's say that one strain has been raised under different conditions and fed different types of food than the other. These extraneous factors would be "confounded with" the gene difference, thereby making it impossible to interpret any average difference in lever pressing found between the two strains. The major goal of controlled research[∂] is to eliminate or to take into account the effects of confounds in order to determine the causal effects of the factor under investigation. Case studies do not allow researchers to accomplish this goal.
Correlational Studies We can establish that there exists such a general relationship only by examining a large number of individuals. This goal can be accomplished through correlational studies — a type of study in which two (or more) variables are directly measured and compared in a large group of individuals. The results of a correlational study allow us to determine whether or not the variables “go together” — that is, whether or not they change together, on average. If two variables change together in the same direction, such as is true for height and weight (taller people tend to be heavier, on average, and vice versa), we say that the variables are positively correlated. If two variables change together in the opposite direction, such as alcohol intake and driving ability (the more alcohol one drinks, the less able one is to drive, on average, and vice versa), we say that the variables are negatively correlated. The major strength of correlational studies is that they allow us to quickly discover general relationships among variables. Let's look at an example of a correlational study. Deady and Smith (2006) calculated, in 679 women between the ages of 20 and 29 years, correlations between their height and three other variables:
The researchers found a positive correlation between height and career orientation: on average, the taller a woman was, the stronger was her career orientation. They found a negative correlation between height and maternal personality: on average, the taller a woman was, the less of a maternal personality she had. Finally, they found a negative correlation between height and reproductive ambition: the taller a woman was, the weaker was her reproductive ambition. From these results, can we conclude that height causes women to have less reproductive ambition, a reduced maternal personality, and a greater career orientation? Can we conclude that little girls who, when thinking about what they would like when they grow up, express the desire to have many children and seem less interested in having a career, do not grow as tall as do little girls with the opposite goals? What precisely can we conclude from these correlations? When interpreting the results of correlational studies, it is important to remember two limitations of correlational data:
When we find a correlation between two variables, such as where students sit in a classroom and course grades, there is no way we can tell from the correlation alone what is causing the two variables to be correlated. Why? Because when two variables, A and B, are correlated, there are three possible causal explanations:
In other words, correlational studies have two major problems that make it impossible to infer anything about the cause of a correlation based on the correlation alone:
These two problems are illustrated in Figure 2.
Let's examine these problems by looking at some examples. There is a correlation between the kind of car one owns and whether or not one has cancer: people who own sports cars are less likely, on average, to have cancer than people who own other types of car. What is causing this correlation? The directionality problem suggests two possibilities:
The third-variable problem suggests another possibility:
All we can conclude from the negative correlation between whether or not one owns a sports car and whether or not one has been diagnosed with cancer is that the two variables are associated in the general population: as one variables increases, the other variable decreases. Let's look at another example. It has been found that the existence of gum disease (Variable A) in a pregnant mother is negatively correlated with the birth weight (Variable B) of her baby. In other words, pregnant mothers with gum disease tend to give birth to low-weight babies. What is causing this correlation? The directionality problem suggests two possibilities:
The third-variable problem suggests another possibility:
Thus, the major weakness of correlational studies is that the directionality and third-variable problems do not allow researchers to infer cause-and-effect relationships from correlational data .
What Is A Cause?Oliver Sacks (1974) presented the case of a woman who, over the period of a few days, developed some very unusual symptoms:
What caused this woman to develop the inability to feel her body? Was the psychiatrist correct: was the problem caused by anxiety and her maladaptive psychological attempts to deal with it? If so, what precisely does this mean? How and under what conditions can anxiety cause a physical problem? Perhaps the cause involved some other factor. For example, perhaps it had something to do with the antibiotics the woman was taking. But, if so, why did the antibiotics affect her in this way? Why do antibiotics not do this to other people who take them? Finally, she could have been affected by a factor unrelated to her planned surgery — perhaps a virus that, simply by coincidence, infected her at this time. But again, why would a viral infection affect her in such an unusual way? Perhaps the best explanation might be to suppose that several factors working together led to the development of this woman's strange symptoms. In this case, could we call each of the individual factors a "cause" given that none of them acting alone could produce the symptoms? It seems that, as we speculate more and more about possible causes of this woman's feeling of disembodiment, we are led to more and more questions about what it means to say that something is a cause. For example, if it were found that the antibiotics had caused her problems, would you conclude that antibiotics cause people to feel as if they are disembodied? Why or why not? Most of you probably would answer "no" and then argue that, because antibiotics don't generally cause such symptoms in people, it would not make sense to say that "antibiotics cause people to feel disembodied." On the other hand, you might conclude that antibiotics caused this particular woman's symptoms; and perhaps could even cause them in others who are overly sensitive to their effects. But, in this case, if a factor influences the development of a disorder only in a very small number of people, what does it mean to refer to that factor as a "cause"? Of course, at this point, you may be stating (perhaps with some annoyance), "it's obvious what a cause is! It's like when one car hits another and causes a dent: the dent is caused by the first car hitting the second car. It's easy! A cause is a force that changes something else." Although this definition makes some sense when we are talking about the causes of large-scale events in the physical world, the issue quickly becomes more complicated when we consider other kinds of phenomena, such as the case study above. This is especially true when we consider the causes of nonphysical events such as thoughts and emotions. Thus, let's examine some ideas that may help us to better understand what is meant by the word "cause" in psychology. Sufficient Conditions What we often fail to consider, however, is that sufficient conditions tend to be very complex. For example, pressing the power button will not turn the television set on unless some other things also are true:
There are still other factors that must be present if pressing the power button is going to turn on the television. Thus, as you can see, a sufficient condition for turning on a television actually involves the co-occurrence of a number of individual factors. In a similar way, a lit match thrown into a wastebasket full of paper will not be sufficient to cause a fire if the paper is wet. The general problem that these examples point to is this: our notion of cause in everyday life is too simplistic. That is, we tend to ignore many of the additional factors that also must occur if one particular factor is to act as a cause of something else. Each factor contributes to the outcome, but none alone is sufficient for the effect to occur. Although you might think that the ultimate goal of research in psychology is to discover sufficient conditions for causing specific changes in mental and behavioral phenomena, this is not always, and probably not even often, the case. Individual researchers typically have much more modest goals for their work. Necessary Conditions Again, although you might think that psychologists are trying to determine the necessary conditions for the occurrence of mental and behavioral phenomena, this is not often the case. Instead, psychologists try to find individual factors that tend to lead (that is, to lead on average) to changes in mental and behavioral phenomena. In other words, they try to find factors that increase or decrease the likelihood that a particular mental or behavioral event will occur. The behaviors and mental events studied by psychologists also tend to be caused by a large number of interacting factors. We need to perform investigations of a number of these factors and their interactions before we can develop a comprehensive theory of a psychological phenomenon. For example, our present understanding of schizophrenia suggests that the disease is caused by many interacting factors, such as abnormal gene variants, viral infections, abnormal biochemical activity in the brain, psychosocial stress, and environmental toxins. Brown and Ghiselli (1955) stated that such theories are the norm in psychology:
We refer to this as multifactorial causation (see Section 1-2), which means that a phenomenon is determined by many interacting factors. As Brown and Ghiselli suggested, the many factors that determine a phenomenon are thought to occur over the lifetimes of individuals. In the case of schizophrenia, there are distal factors (those that occurred some time ago) — such as viral infections during fetal development — and proximal factors (those that occurred recently) — such as stressful events (see Figure 3). The distal and proximal factors tend to interact in complex ways that can be difficult to investigate. Insert Fig 3 Here Let's look at an example. Why does smoking only increase a person's chances of developing lung cancer? Why does smoking not guarantee that a person will develop lung cancer? It probably occurred to you that there are other factors that increase or decrease the harmful effects of smoking. For example, genes, diet, amount of exercise, stress levels, amount of alcohol consumed, and so on, are factors that may interact with smoking in determining who will and who will not develop lung cancer. Why can nonsmokers develop lung cancer? Again, other factors, such as genes, diet, stress levels, etc., are thought to influence the development of lung cancer. Each factor, when looked at individually, increases the chance of developing lung cancer, but probably none alone is sufficient to cause lung cancer. It seems very likely that the causes of lung cancer are many and that their interactions are complex.
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